How to Calculate Your Potential NBA Futures Payout Before Placing Bets

I remember the first time I placed an NBA futures bet back in 2022, staring at those tempting +2500 odds for the Memphis Grizzlies to win the championship. My heart said yes, but my brain kept asking—what would this actually pay out if they somehow pulled it off? That’s when I realized how many bettors dive into futures markets without really understanding the math behind potential payouts. Let me walk you through how I now calculate my potential NBA futures payout before placing any bets, because honestly, it’s saved me from some pretty questionable decisions over the years.

Take this year’s Emirates NBA Cup 2024 for example. I’ve been tracking the Lakers at +1200 to win the inaugural tournament, and let me tell you, seeing LeBron and AD dominate in those intense rivalry games at Las Vegas had me seriously considering throwing $200 on them. But instead of just going with my gut, I sat down with my notes and did the calculations. The formula’s actually simple once you get the hang of it: (Stake × Odds) + Stake = Total Payout. So for those Lakers, my $200 at +1200 would mean ($200 × 12) + $200 = $2,600 if they win the Cup. That’s $2,400 in pure profit plus my original $200 back. Now compare that to the Celtics at +350—the same $200 bet would only return $900 total. See why this matters?

What most casual bettors don’t realize is that futures odds shift dramatically throughout the season, especially during tournaments like the NBA Cup where teams are fighting for that new mid-season glory. I’ve noticed the Suns’ odds improving from +1800 to +800 after they dominated their group stage, and let me be honest here—I regret not locking in those earlier odds when I had the chance. Last month, I calculated that a $150 bet at +1800 would’ve netted me $2,850, but now at +800, that same bet only pays $1,350. That’s a $1,500 difference because I hesitated! This is why I always stress—calculate your potential payout immediately when you spot valuable odds, because they won’t last long in this volatile market.

Here’s where many bettors go wrong—they look at a team like the Warriors at +2000 and think “great odds!” without considering the actual probability versus potential return. I use a quick mental trick: for positive odds like +2000, I divide 100 by the first number (2000) to estimate the implied probability—roughly 5% in this case. Then I ask myself—do I genuinely believe the Warriors have better than a 5% chance to win the Emirates NBA Cup? Given their inconsistent performance in those high-stakes rivalry games, I’d say probably not, which means those apparently “great” odds might actually be fair or even overvalued. This simple calculation has stopped me from making emotional bets on my favorite teams multiple times.

The solution I’ve developed combines quick math with ongoing research. I maintain a simple spreadsheet tracking odds movements across 5 different sportsbooks for the top 12 NBA Cup contenders. For instance, the Bucks were sitting at +750 last week, but after their impressive 12-point comeback victory in the semifinal matchup, they’ve shifted to +450. If I’d placed $300 on them earlier, my potential payout would’ve been $2,550 instead of the current $1,650—that’s $900 more! This tracking system helps me identify when odds are most favorable. Personally, I’ve found the sweet spot is usually right after unexpected upsets in the tournament—that’s when you’ll find temporarily inflated odds on quality teams.

Looking at the current NBA Cup standings, I’m actually leaning toward the Nuggets at +600 as my value pick. They’ve been flying somewhat under the radar despite Jokić’s dominant performances, and my calculations show their true probability might be closer to 18% rather than the 14% implied by their odds. If I’m right, that discrepancy represents genuine value. I’m considering a $250 wager which would return $1,750—not bad for a team I genuinely believe could win the whole thing. The key insight here? Learning how to calculate your potential NBA futures payout isn’t just about the math—it’s about developing the discipline to only bet when the numbers align with your assessment. Trust me, your bankroll will thank you later, especially during dramatic tournaments like this first-ever Emirates NBA Cup where surprises seem to happen almost nightly.